Predicting Bitcoin's Price with FB Prophet

This week, I started using FB Prophet to predict the prices of cryptocurrencies.  Because of the large variation in crypto prices, I am only using FB Prophet to predict 30 days out.  I am also doing this to see test FB Prophet as a predicting tool.


What is FB Prophet?

FB prophet is an open-source forecasting tool developed by Facebook. Facebook describes FB Prophet as: 

" Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects. It works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data. Prophet is robust to missing data and shifts in the trend, and typically handles outliers well." - https://facebook.github.io/prophet/


Predicting Bitcoin's Price for April 2022

Below is FB Prophet's prediction for July 20,2021 - April 2022.  The blue lines and bars represent FB Prophet's prediction. The black dots represent the actual prices for Bitcoin.

Since the data ends on March 31,2022, the data for the month of April 2022 are the predictions out of the sample.  FB Prophet is predicting prices between the 35,000 (lower bound) to 45,000 (upper-bound) USD range for the month of April.




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